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Peak Renter in the Rearview
Three years ago our office asked “Is 2015 Peak Renter?” We laid out a straightforward case examining the three main underlying drivers for the shift into rentership over the previous decade: household...
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Oregon Personal Income Update, 2018q2
Last week the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released both the latest estimates for state personal income along with their comprehensive revisions they do every 5 years. These big, comprehensive...
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Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em
Despite a modest correction in stock prices, the near-term outlook remains bright. The economic data flow continues to be healthy. The next 12-18 months should see good growth, in part due to the...
View ArticlePortland’s Economic and Housing Outlook
This morning I am presenting at the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland’s annual forecast breakfast. It’s been a few years since I’ve been able to attend again, so we have lots of topics...
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Oregon’s Energy Intensity and Household Spending
Energy costs can have big impacts on the economy. This has certainly been the case historically with the 1973 oil crisis and U.S. recession being a prime example. More recently we can observe the...
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Economic Mobility: Place and Community Matters
Next Monday, Raj Chetty, via satellite, will be presenting at the Oregon Leadership Summit. If the name may not be familiar, his research certainly is. Dr. Chetty, along with Nathanial Hendren and a...
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Fun Friday: Households Feeling Good
The strong economy is reaching all corners with employment rates and household incomes rising. One result is households are feeling pretty good right now. Balance sheets have been repaired. Debt, while...
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A Few Thoughts on Wealth
Economists have tons of data and research on current incomes. However we have considerably less on wealth. In fact we have next to nothing at the regional or local level. Given the increased...
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Migration Diversifies Oregon, Barely
A couple years ago we examined Oregon’s diversity and the fact that Oregon’s foreign-born population is fairly similar to, albeit smaller than the U.S. as a whole. Now, Oregon does have a somewhat...
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Working from Home
As an economist, I’m fascinated and intrigued by start-ups and entrepreneurship. In part because they’re so vital to productivity and economic growth. In part because they’re at or near historic lows....
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Marijuana Demand, Supply and Substitution
Notes on three new marijuana research pieces that has come out recently. First, 2017 state level estimates of drug and alcohol use were released this week. What it shows is a continuation of trends...
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Lottery and Gaming Outlook, 2019
The best economic news in recent years is the growth seen in household incomes. They are rising as we have more Oregonians employed who are working more hours and for higher pay. Oregon’s growth has...
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Educational Attainment Continues to Increase
A few years ago we looked at educational attainment across generations here in Oregon. What it showed is that educational attainment is increasing over time. That is, Millennials are obtaining college...
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Industrial Diversification in Oregon
Last month we examined industries and regions in Oregon that grow faster (or slower) and are more volatile (or stable) than the overall economy. Today we follow up with a look at industrial...
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Urban Wage Premium, Pacific Northwest Edition
New research from MIT’s David Autor has set the economics profession on fire in recent months. The reason is it furthers our understanding of the impacts of job polarization, wage stagnation and the...
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Middle-Wage Jobs Are Almost Back (2018 Job Polarization Update)
Job polarization is the academic term for when high-wage and low-wage jobs grow quickly while good-paying, family-wage jobs bear the brunt of recessions and don’t tend to come all the way back in...
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Future Economic Growth in Oregon
Economic growth over the long run is determined by the number of workers and how productive they are. The main reason Oregon outperforms the typical state over the entire business cycle is our stronger...
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Lifting the Hood on Oregon’s Transfer Payments
Over the past decade or two, transfer payments have become a larger source of personal income here in Oregon and across the country. Transfer payments are basically benefits paid for by the government...
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Oregon Births and Deaths, Part 2
Part 1 looked at the natural increase in Oregon’s population, how it is expected to turn negative next decade and how half of Oregon counties already see deaths outnumber births. Today in Part 2 we...
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Oregon Births and Deaths, Part 3
Previously in Part 1 we looked at the big picture for Oregon births and deaths and across counties. In Part 2 we explored the declining birthrate. Today in Part 3 we will look at the rise in Oregon...
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