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Migration to Oregon, an Update
In recent months we have discussed the big picture outlook for labor supply, the silver tsunami of retirements, how migration is slowing but remains the key driver of population gains, and how...
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More on Migration to Oregon
Last week we updated the basics of migration to Oregon. The post generated quite a few comments and questions. As such I wanted to post an update with a little more information. First, a common theme...
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Friday Beer Thoughts: Local Demand
Many of the business discussions surrounding beer tend to focus on the number of breweries opening or closing. We use that as a barometer for the health of the sector, including our previous look at...
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County Wage Growth (Map of the Week)
While the macro outlook is more uncertain today, one item our office has tried to highlight is that current economic conditions are pretty good. The share of prime working-age Americans and Oregonians...
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Digging Into Oregon’s Strong Income Growth
Oregon always outperforms the typical state during economic expansions. Yes, part of this is playing catch-up after experiencing deeper recessions, but much of it has to do with our industrial...
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Oregon Poverty and Progress, 2018 Edition
This morning the Census Bureau released the 2018 American Community Survey data. There is a ton to unpack here and even more once the microdata is released later this year. In the coming months our...
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Urban Oregon Household Income, 2018 Update
This morning the Census Bureau released the 2018 American Community Survey data. There is a ton to unpack here and even more once the microdata is released later this year. In the coming months our...
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Housing Remains a Macro Issue
Just a quick reminder that housing supply remains a macroeconomic issue: Residential investment has been a drag on GDP growth in 8 out of the last 10 quarters. Low levels of new construction contribute...
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Economic Trends of the 2010s (Graphs of the Decade)
Economically, the 2010s were a disappointment. Now, the U.S. economy went the full 10 years without a recession, a first in history. However we began the decade at the bottom of the worst recession in...
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Fun Friday: More Marijuana Border Effects
A border effect can arise when neighboring jurisdictions have different rules, regulations or tax rates for the same industry or product. Border effects are a well researched topic and evident at the...
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What Drives Cost of Living Differences? (Graph of the Week)
We know the cost of living varies considerably across the country. It can even vary significantly just across town. But what really drives these differences? In a word, housing. Sure, the price of...
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COVID-19: Small Business Survival and PPP
Recessions always change the economy. Even as jobs, income, and profits return and surpass the previous peak, the underlying structure of the economy is different than it was prior to the recession. In...
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COVID-19 and Migration
In terms of the economy, the biggest risk is the amount of permanent damage that accumulates during the social distancing phase. Across the country this is largely about business closures and/or...
View ArticleWorking from Home and Broadband Access in Oregon
There is considerable speculation about how the pandemic will change the way we live. In particular our office is fielding a lot of questions about working from home and whether households may...
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Income, Spending, and an Uncertain Outlook (Graph of the Week)
To date the economy is a paradox in the sense that it is clearly in bad shape but also performing better than expected. One big reason for this better-than-expected economy is federal assistance. In...
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Oregon Poverty and Progress, 2019 Edition
This morning the Census Bureau released the 2019 American Community Survey data. Normally this is the Super Bowl of socioeconomic data, and researchers mine it for months to better understand where we...
View ArticleEconomic Dynamism in Oregon
The key economic concern today is one of permanent damage. How many firms close and how many permanent layoffs occur? While much of the damage has been temporary to date, it’s that underlying...
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COVID’s Impact on State and Local Governments
This started with a seemingly basic question: “Why is public sector employment down so much this year?” The normal pattern we see is that the public sector is more of a stabilizing force in the...
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State Revenues in Comparison
Today the New York Times is out with a good article on state tax collections. To those of you following along with our office, there is no real news here. State tax revenues are doing much better than...
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Oregon and the Cycle (Graphs of the Year)
What a year it’s been. The good news is that we started the year with the strongest economy we had seen in decades, and we’re ending the year with hope as the vaccines are being delivered. Everything...
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